The simulation covered 20+ years, the adviser was not asked
The author ran Monte Carlo in Claude on a retirement portfolio. He inserted 2-3 bear markets on a 6% growth path and a 60:40 mix, over 15-20 years. The thesis held for 20+ years, very likely. Fidelity has not been asked.
Done with ClaudeEasy
This is a public report, not advice from Skatteetaten, NAV, Altinn or an accountant. Check figures, deadlines and decisions against the original.
What was done
On 31 August 2026 the author writes that he reconstructed his retirement portfolio and ran Monte Carlo simulations in Claude. They randomly inserted 2-3 known past bear markets into a 6% growth path for a 60:40 allocation over 15-20 years. That was compared with a control of 6% continuous growth. He then overlaid one-time spending on home improvements and looked at the distribution of outcomes. That supported the thesis that estimated expenses and income from growth and other income would very likely be sufficient to cover 20+ years. He asks whether he should trust an AI to model the sequence of such shocks. He is a self-directed investor. His wife would rather he take it to a Fidelity adviser. He prefers to do it himself. The post does not say he has done that.
How it went
The simulation supported the thesis for 20+ years. The portfolio is not changed in the post, and Fidelity has not been contacted.
Worth knowing
Amounts, accounts and which bear markets were used are not in the post. 2-3, 15-20 years and very likely are his own wording. Check the original. This is not investment advice.
How to do it
- Describe the mix, the growth path and which known shocks should be drawn in.
- Ask for a comparison against steady growth, and for the one-time costs laid on top.
- Read the distribution yourself. Do not move money because of one run.
Try it with Claude
Run a simulation of [portfolio] with [mix] over [period]. Compare it with steady growth. Do not propose buys or sells. Do not move money until I say yes.
Replace text in brackets with your own.
Done when. You have read the distribution, and no money has been moved.
Safety rule. No trades and no movement of money until you have said yes.
Read the original
Read the original · u/NinjaTrader007 on Reddit ·